COVID 19

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Sourwould

New User
Taylor
A news program tonight stated that on the current trajectory, by spring there will have been more deaths in the US from coronavirus than all the wars since 1900. Every 3 days, more Americans are dying from this than were killed in the 9/11 attacks. It is now the 3rd leading cause of death in the US.

But how bad could it be?
 

McRabbet

Rob
Corporate Member
Bruce,

My thoughts and best wishes are for Beth's complete recovery and for you to stay solid and healthy as you go through your quarantine period. We are in the age and (unfortunately) weight group that is statistically more susceptible to this nasty disease (I'm a diabetic). Stay vigilant as it is not worth the risk to be otherwise.
 

aircooled

New User
Newb
Double check your math:

NC Deaths 3961
NC Infections 246,000
Death Rate: 1.61%

US Deaths 220,000
US Infections 8,190,000
Death Rate: 2.69%

Worldwide Deaths: 1,120,000
Worldwide Infections: 40,300,000
Death Rate: 2.78%

(info per Wikipedia and NY times as of 10/19/2020)

I know 5 people who have tested positive. 2 in there 20's, one in 40's and two in their 80's. I'd like to ask all five their opinion on if it was "just the flu" as some people describe it, but 1 of them is dead, the 40 year old. The older couple, one is still complaining of dizziness, and "brain fog" as it's described and this is a month later. The younger ones are still in the active stage, so hopefully they have no long term effects.

You're right, those are much larger %'s than the one's previously quoted.
 

chris_goris

Chris
Senior User
Double check your math:

NC Deaths 3961
NC Infections 246,000
Death Rate: 1.61%

US Deaths 220,000
US Infections 8,190,000
Death Rate: 2.69%

Worldwide Deaths: 1,120,000
Worldwide Infections: 40,300,000
Death Rate: 2.78%

(info per Wikipedia and NY times as of 10/19/2020)

I know 5 people who have tested positive. 2 in there 20's, one in 40's and two in their 80's. I'd like to ask all five their opinion on if it was "just the flu" as some people describe it, but 1 of them is dead, the 40 year old. The older couple, one is still complaining of dizziness, and "brain fog" as it's described and this is a month later. The younger ones are still in the active stage, so hopefully they have no long term effects.
Double check your INFORMATION and what it means, PLEASE.
Numbers are wonderful things but you must understand what they mean. While any deaths are a horrible thing, especially sudden and seemingly avoidable deaths, not all are unavoidable. What do I mean?

Number 1, By their own admission, the CDC is listing anyone who dies WITH covid as a covid death. Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
Look at table 1. Look at the descriptions of the "provisional" death counts. All of the headings include pneumonia or influenza as well as covid. Covid may have brought on pneumonia, or made influenza more severe , but this is not the same as dying FROM covid.

Number 2, these "death rates" you quote are only if a person becomes infected, not the death rate of the entire population.

For example:

NC Deaths 3961
NC Infections 246,000
Death Rate: 1.61%
NC total population 10.5 Mil
NC infected percentage 2.3% of total population
NC death rate as a percentage (chance) 2.3% x 1.6% = .037% chance of dying from Covid in NC

Using the same math: ( AND the CDC's seemingly flawed lumping of all deaths related to covid , table 1) :

US death rate as a percentage (chance) 2.48% x 2.69% = .066% chance of dying from covid in the US

The one thing you can take away from this number is that living in NC you have a better survival rate than the US in general.

Food for thought: Historically speaking, globally the human race loses 3600 people per day to traffic deaths (1.31 million annually) .017% of the population, yet we still get behind the wheel without a thought.

Again, any death is a horrible thing, but numbers are numbers , they are empirical and we must understand the severity of them. If anyone here has it, or knows anyone with this, I certainly wish you well .
 

tri4sale

Daniel
Corporate Member
Food for thought: Historically speaking, globally the human race loses 3600 people per day to traffic deaths (1.31 million annually) .017% of the population, yet we still get behind the wheel without a thought.

Actually, a lot of thought went into getting behind the wheel of a car, much thought went into the multitudes of safety devices and laws mandating what we can and cannot do in a car to limit the injury and deaths from traffic accidents.

And yeah, you can play and manipulate the numbers all you want, but there are 200,000+ dead Americans. The average weekly deaths have spiked since covid started, and there is no other global event during that time to account for the spike.

1603199190513.png
 

Rwe2156

DrBob
Senior User
The stats aren't reliable. Colorado audited the data and 25% of the deaths were incorrectly reported.
Lots of misconceptions are caused by one word: "Cases". Ask any doctor and he will tell you that there is no "case" unless there are symptoms.

I don't believe for one second there are 215,000 deaths caused by COVID because of the stupid CDC guidelines for reporting cause of death.

I someone goes to the hospital with a heart attack and gets tested + for influenza, and subsequently dies of heart failure, the cause of death used to be reported as "heart failure complicated by influenza".

There is WAY too much panic and WAY too much herd mentality.

Never mind that masks are questionable protection, to say the least!
 

smurg

New User
Marty
The stats aren't reliable. Colorado audited the data and 25% of the deaths were incorrectly reported.
Lots of misconceptions are caused by one word: "Cases". Ask any doctor and he will tell you that there is no "case" unless there are symptoms.

I don't believe for one second there are 215,000 deaths caused by COVID because of the stupid CDC guidelines for reporting cause of death.

I someone goes to the hospital with a heart attack and gets tested + for influenza, and subsequently dies of heart failure, the cause of death used to be reported as "heart failure complicated by influenza".

There is WAY too much panic and WAY too much herd mentality.

Never mind that masks are questionable protection, to say the least!

A good way to looks at the effect of the virus without worrying about hospital reporting and varying causes of death is to look at the CDC excess deaths metric:


We're easily over 200k+ on the year and the virus is very serious due to how easily it spreads (and possible lingering effects even if you survive).

"Excess deaths are typically defined as the difference between the observed numbers of deaths in specific time periods and expected numbers of deaths in the same time periods."

Much like woodworking, people dedicate their lives to studying these estimates and I'll take their word for it just like I do with most of the woodworking advice on here.
 
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Rwe2156

DrBob
Senior User
Marty, WADR, we simply don't know that. Personally, at this point I don't trust much of anything coming out of the CDC.

What we do know is deaths are flatlined and the powers that be label "cases" & "outbreaks" are simply + tests, with no regard for whether the person is sick or not.

Then there is the PCR test, which is way too sensitive (32 passes in US vs. 16 passes in Europe) and will yield a + test even if the virus is dead.

I was just told a few minutes ago someone I know is in the hospital with diabetes, heart failure, pneumonia and is also + for COVID. His wife is also +, no symptoms.

If he dies, no doubt it will go in the database as a COVID death.
 

chris_goris

Chris
Senior User
Actually, a lot of thought went into getting behind the wheel of a car, much thought went into the multitudes of safety devices and laws mandating what we can and cannot do in a car to limit the injury and deaths from traffic accidents.

And yeah, you can play and manipulate the numbers all you want, but there are 200,000+ dead Americans. The average weekly deaths have spiked since covid started, and there is no other global event during that time to account for the spike.

View attachment 197278
Im well aware of the safety built into automobiles, I work for the auto industry. Im not sure what you mean by number manipulation either. All of my numbers were published data. If you're going to show graph, please make it relevant and current, not from the UK in April. The other thing to remember about all of this is a vaccine will never stop this. Its a fool's errand to even begin to believe it will, because someone , somewhere will always be carrying this.
 

JimD

Jim
Senior User
While COVID-19 is the third cause of death in the U. S., it is about half the cancer deaths and less than half the heart disease. So it is nowhere close to the top. But it is obviously significant.

The other thing I would note is that the deaths are predominantly in people with higher risk characteristics. For many of us, it more comparable to getting the flu. But we don't know that for sure until afterwards and even though I think the risk of death has been shown to be quite low for young people, they can still spread the disease and need to careful to avoid killing their grandparents, for instance. We just had another incident with a very large group of USC college students with no masks and no social distancing partying. Their desire to do this is understandable but it just isn't the year for this.

With no shutdowns Sweden has had about the same death rate as the U. S.. But they only have about 10 million people in the country so it is not comparable even to France or Italy, let alone the U. S.. But it is interesting that we have not really had noticably better results from more restrictions. Even among states, it's hard to see a clear benefit for the states with more restrictions. My opinion is it is more a function of following the common sense, mask, washing, social distancing than it is more draconian "stay home" orders. Masks are a hassle but I wear mine when around others.
 

Mike Davis

Mike
Corporate Member
We are all sorry for Beth and Bruce and for the many others.
My mother in law and several other people we know in Georgia have it, a few people we know have died.

But, this is not really the place for a possibly heated political discussion, please let's get back to wood working.
 

Graywolf

Board of Directors, President
Richard
Staff member
Corporate Member
Bruce, I wish you and yours a speedy recovery.

But Mike is right, this is not the place for a lot of charged debate concerning this matter. If y’all want to air this out on another platform then have at it. But this is for woodworking and caring for Bruce and his family on this announcement. So please be mindful of you opinions.
 

Gotcha6

Dennis
Staff member
Corporate Member
Agreed. We all hope the best for Bruce and his wife. Perhaps a lot of this discussion belonged in the Off Topic Forum, but the fact that one of our members is now dealing with it in their family, I think, opened the door to a lot of our frustrations with this entire situation. Sorry for what turned into a thread hijack, guys. My thoughts and sympathies to Beth and Bruce. Stay safe.
 

gfernandez

Gonzalo
Corporate Member
Well, I am a physician and actually run a COVID clinic at a nuclear power plant with 10,000 employees. Lots of flawed logic here for sure, but people will believe what they want to believe. Now that people have had a chance to air their grievances, maybe time to move the focus back to woodworking? Or growing tomatoes? Or dumpster diving and used compressors? So many topics, so little time.....
 

FredP

Fred
Corporate Member
Well, I am a physician and actually run a COVID clinic at a nuclear power plant with 10,000 employees. Lots of flawed logic here for sure, but people will believe what they want to believe. Now that people have had a chance to air their grievances, maybe time to move the focus back to woodworking? Or growing tomatoes? Or dumpster diving and used compressors? So many topics, so little time.....
Well said. While Bruce and his wife are in our thoughts and prayers this thread is becoming divisive. maybe it should get poofed?
 
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